Chizuk Emunah Under the Microscope: Chapter 14

    The scepter shall not depart from Judah,
        nor the ruler's staff from between his feet,
    until tribute comes to him;
        and to him shall be the obedience of the peoples.
(Genesis 49:10 ESV)

Troki argues against the idea that this is a reference to Jesus. He says that this verse, if it did apply to Jesus, would be impossible to reconcile with the fact that Judah lost its kingship with the second exile, and Herod was of low blood.

In his interpretation, Troki argues that the verse gives Judah supremacy over the other tribes through David and to Zedekiah. There were princes during the second temple period through Zerubbabel. Even during the time of Saul, Judah still had the scepter, since it was David who conducted Israel to battle. The scepter indicates that Judah will always have a place among the leadership, not necessarily that there will always be a king of Judah on the throne.

Instead, the lawgivers will not depart until Shiloh comes. Shiloh indicates the youngest child, the Messiah. The verse, according to Troki, does not mean that the scepter will depart after the coming of Messiah, but instead that the scepter will never depart from Judah.

Indeed, the following verse (49:11) is considered a messianic passage in Berachot 57a of the Talmud. Also, Targum Onkelos translates Shiloh as Messiah, as does Pseudo-Jonathan, as does the translation in Sanhedrin 98b.

But this is not a problem for the Christian worldview. It is a problem for unbelieving Jews. Any sovereignty that Judah had was obliterated by the year 135, when Jews were finally kicked out of the land. While there were kings over Judah in the late second temple period, and Judeans were in power during that time, Israel lost the right to capital punishment in the year 6, when it became a province of Rome. At that point, there was no sovereign state of Israel, and there were no Judeans in charge.

Israel then lost the Temple during the year 70, and was scattered after the failed Bar Kochba revolt of 135. After that point, there definitely were no kings and the scepter was nowhere to be found. The nation was decimated and scattered into communities, none of which had sovereignty, and therefore there was no Judean ruler. The year 135 is our cutoff point for the coming of Messiah. If Messiah did not come by then, your faith is in vain.